来源:网络 2020-07-22 13:26:05



某家公司8年前利润上升的同时增加了很多新人. 于是该公司的CEO认为是因为公司招了对的新人(with the right level of skill and motivation), 所以利润才会上升. 但是最近公司的利润下降了, 而且最近新招的员工的技能不符合给他们的工资水平, 所以CEO认为是没有招到合适的新员工才导致利润下降, 利润下降全是人事部的失败.


棋牌客户端The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company´s human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:

“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our new employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.” (by: 吐吐yeah )


1. Gratuitous Assumption: 无根据假设: A 不导致B -unjustified salaries不一定导致employee 创造的revenue下降,下降也可能是由于职工所在部门的部门经理的管理能力不足。human resources department有失职不一定导致unjustified salaries,工资数额不是HR一个部门可以决定的。财务部门和CEO都有参与。

2. 充分必要条件: 其他因素也能导致falling profits下降,比如产品已经过时,市场发生变化等。

3. 时地全等all things are equal:过去经验现在不一定适用,八年前的历史数据不能用来评价目前的状况。

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